Seven years after Brexit triggered an exodus of EU families from inner London, the aftershock is finally hitting Wandsworth’s secondary schools – exactly as education chiefs predicted – and the numbers reveal what can only be described as a death spiral.
The trends were predicted over two years ago, when officers warned that falling primary rolls would cascade into secondary schools. A meeting of the Wandsworth Schools Forum this week confirmed [pdf] that process had begun.
Secondary schools are now losing pupils faster than primary schools for the first time, dropping at 2.67% compared to 2.27% for primaries. But the real crisis isn’t just falling numbers. It’s who’s leaving and who’s arriving – and what that means for school budgets.
The demographic swap
Between 2018 and 2025, the number of children eligible for Free School Meals more than doubled – from 4,560 to 10,264. These pupils now make up 32% of all students, up from 19% in 2019.
Schools with the most Free School Meals pupils have lost 20.8% of their students since 2018. Schools with the fewest lost just 2.2%.
At the same time, around 2,500 families applied for school places mid-year in 2023-24, with roughly half being new arrivals to the UK. Council officers told [pdf] a December 2024 meeting these arrivals are “unpredictable” and particularly difficult to place for pupils aged 14-16.
The data pattern is clear: middle-class families are leaving – whether to private schools, other boroughs, or outside London – while lower-income families and refugees are staying or arriving. Total numbers fall, but the proportion needing Free School Meals climbs.
This creates a financial death spiral. Schools lose wealthy pupils (and their funding). They gain poor pupils (who cost more to support), and on top of that, the funding formula penalises schools with high poverty rates. It all leads to fewer resources for schools which in turn drives middle-class families away. And the cycle repeats.
Why schools can’t cut costs
Schools spend roughly 80% of their budgets on staff salaries. This makes it almost impossible to cut spending in line with falling pupil numbers.
When a school loses 30 pupils – one class worth – it loses around £136,000 in funding. But it can typically only cut one teacher’s salary, saving roughly £45,000. The school is still £91,000 short.
Schools need at least 26 pupils per class “to have all the resources to maximise the educational offer,” documents state. Schools with high poverty funding can survive with 22 pupils per class. Below that, schools must cut resources, support staff, or entire programmes.
Between October 2023 and 2024, more than half of all schools – both primary and secondary – lost pupils.
Policy changes make it worse
National government policy changes tighten the squeeze. From September 2026, Free School Meals eligibility will expand to include all Universal Credit recipients regardless of income. Currently there’s a £7,400 earnings limit. Removing it will mean more children eligible for Free School Meals – and higher costs for schools to provide them.
At the same time, Wandsworth’s funding formula is moving toward the National Funding Formula, which gives less money based on poverty measures. A January 2025 report to the Schools Forum states: “This will impact schools with the highest number of children eligible for FSM, these schools are the schools which have already seen the largest falls in pupil numbers.”
The report warns this “could exacerbate deprivation inequalities present and may lead to financial difficulties in the schools with the highest levels of FSM eligibility.”
Schools get half a percent more money per pupil. But they’re losing pupils at 2.7% – five times faster. So their total budgets are shrinking.
Brexit’s long shadow
Council documents are explicit about the cause. “Inner London boroughs had been hardest hit by reductions in EU immigration due to Brexit and housing policy changes,” meeting minutes state. Birth rates are also forecast to continue to decrease until at least 2030.
New housing developments haven’t stopped the decline. The Wandsworth Schools Forum heard that new developments “had not attracted many families, especially as they included less social housing stock.”
The Alton Estate regeneration scheme – currently being voted on by residents – illustrates the problem. Even though plans have a higher-than-average social housing percentage, they call for building 237 one-bedroom flats, 177 two-bedroom flats, 211 three-bedroom flats, and just 22 four-bedroom flats. Most of the 177 homes being demolished are three-bedroom family units.
The council acknowledges two-bedroom flats are designed for four people, meaning families must use living rooms as bedrooms. When asked about families with a boy and girl of different ages, the council’s Director of Housing Development, Joe Richardson, admitted in an email that such families “simply would not be offered them.”
The housing being built doesn’t suit families with children – which helps explain why families with means are leaving the borough.
Borough of Sanctuary vs budget reality
Wandsworth is working toward “Borough of Sanctuary” status – a policy commitment to welcome refugees. This creates tension between planning school capacity and budget reality. Wandsworth is keeping school places available for unpredictable refugee arrivals – even as overall numbers decline and budgets shrink.
Schools have decided to cut the number of classes rather than shut down entirely. Since 2022, secondary schools have cut 272 places – nine classes worth. Primary schools have reduced intake from 90 pupils per year to 60, then to 30. Some primary schools now take just 15 pupils per year, combining different age groups in the same class.
Only one school, Christ Church Primary, has closed entirely (August 2024). Another, Broadwater Primary, was turned into special educational needs provision.
“This is the preferred alternative to closing schools, as it is less disruptive and does not remove future flexibility/capacity from the system,” a December 2024 report explains. Officers told the meeting that “closing a school would be a last resort” because it “limited options when populations may increase.”
But this strategy has limits. You can reduce from 90 pupils per year to 60 to 30 to 15 – but eventually the numbers don’t work. Schools become financially unviable.
What happens next
The October 2025 meeting was for discussion only. Its report analysed October 2024 census data – the most recent available – and noted that “October 2025 numbers will be finalised and ready for analysis in December 2025.” That December analysis will show whether the trends identified have accelerated, stabilised, or reversed.
With Year 7 intake forecast to fall another 25% by 2033, and minutes recording that “2027-28 would be a significantly challenging year for secondary schools,” Wandsworth faces a decade of difficult decisions. Forum members have asked for a five-year plan “to address the impacts and enable schools to budget more effectively.”
The death spiral continues: fewer middle-class families means less money. More refugee and low-income families means higher costs. Funding formula changes punish schools with high poverty rates, which drives more middle-class families away. And the cycle repeats.
December 2024 documents predicted this crisis. October 2025 data confirms it’s arriving on schedule. December 2025’s final census numbers will show whether it’s accelerating. Unless something fundamental changes – either in national funding policy, local housing policy, or broader demographic trends – some schools will eventually become financially unviable. The question isn’t whether closures will happen. It’s which schools, and when.
This story is based on documents and minutes from Wandsworth Schools Forum meetings between December 2024 and October 2025.
